A new proposal introduced to the New York State Assembly aims to outlaw a wide range of prediction markets, particularly those linked to sports results, political outcomes, and catastrophic events.
The measure, titled Assembly Bill 9251 or the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act, is designed to define, control, and restrict speculative trading on future events.
The bill’s key provision explicitly prohibits New York residents from participating in prediction markets based on “catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities, and athletic events.” The text states that such platforms must not allow users in New York to take speculative positions in these markets. Notably, “athletic events” are defined as individual sports matches or occurrences within them, meaning markets predicting tournament-wide outcomes would remain legal.
The ORACLE Act also introduces strict consumer protection requirements for approved platforms. These include a minimum age of 21, responsible gambling tools such as self-exclusion, and visible HOPE NY hotline information. Operators would need to reveal how outcomes are determined and avoid relying on proprietary or confidential settlement data.
The legislation also contains significant advertising restrictions. It bans marketing aimed at individuals under 21, prohibits phrases such as “risk-free,” and forbids the use of push notifications to promote unrelated offers. All promotional materials would need to display responsible gambling warnings. Additionally, the act forbids using credit cards for deposits or selling gift certificates tied to prediction markets.
The proposal appears to target major sportsbooks, as it prevents prediction market providers from partnering with any liquidity providers or companies that conduct gambling activities. This clause is likely meant to limit crossover between betting operators and prediction market firms—an important point as companies like DraftKings and FanDuel consider entering the space.
Violations could lead to severe penalties: up to $10,000 per infraction, escalating to $50,000 for repeat offenses, and potentially $1 million per day for ongoing breaches. The state attorney general would have authority to seek injunctions to close down offending platforms.
The ORACLE Act’s stated goal is to establish a clear boundary between prediction markets, gambling, and securities trading. However, critics warn that its broad scope may stifle innovation. The bill is currently under review by the Assembly’s Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection.
